{"id":5497,"date":"2019-04-16T00:06:02","date_gmt":"2019-04-16T06:06:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/?p=5497"},"modified":"2020-12-18T14:57:06","modified_gmt":"2020-12-18T20:57:06","slug":"estimation-for-agile-developers-while-status-reporting-to-waterfall-managers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/estimation-for-agile-developers-while-status-reporting-to-waterfall-managers\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimation for Agile Developers While Status Reporting to Waterfall Managers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-playlist wp-audio-playlist wp-playlist-light\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-current-item\"><\/div>\n\t\t<audio controls=\"controls\" preload=\"none\" width=\"674\"\n\t\t\t><\/audio>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-next\"><\/div>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-prev\"><\/div>\n\t<noscript>\n\t<ol>\n\t\t<li><a href='https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Agile-Under-the-Waterfall.mp3'>Agile Under the Waterfall<\/a><\/li>\t<\/ol>\n\t<\/noscript>\n\t<script type=\"application\/json\" class=\"wp-playlist-script\">{\"type\":\"audio\",\"tracklist\":true,\"tracknumbers\":true,\"images\":true,\"artists\":true,\"tracks\":[{\"src\":\"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Agile-Under-the-Waterfall.mp3\",\"type\":\"audio\/mpeg\",\"title\":\"Agile Under the Waterfall\",\"caption\":\"\",\"description\":\"\\\"Agile Under the Waterfall\\\".\",\"meta\":{\"artist\":\"Stephen Choo Quan\",\"album\":\"Design and Execute\",\"length_formatted\":\"4:51\"},\"image\":{\"src\":\"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/audio.svg\",\"width\":48,\"height\":64},\"thumb\":{\"src\":\"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/audio.svg\",\"width\":48,\"height\":64}}]}<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\t\n<h1>Every boss needs two kinds of information, exceptions to plan that require action and a status picture for education. &#8212; Frederick P. Brooks, Mythical Man Month<\/h1>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Our managers and stakeholders will often ask the question, &#8220;when can I have this completed?&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Keep track of these metrics that matter, the KPI&#8217;s that can influence the outcome. Here is a significant sample project with 500 users&#8217; story points. All stories, in this example, are of the same size and complexity, story points. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>Using the Velocity of a team, I can project how many sprints are needed to complete the backlog. Therefore I can estimate the sprint release and the time of completion.<\/p>\n<p>If I have 500 points estimated and the velocity is 7 points per sprint, I need 72 sprints to finish the backlog. If each sprint is 10 days, then I can project the date on the calendar.<\/p>\n<p>See the table below.\u00a0 It shows how to move across sprints carrying forward any residuals.<\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">\n<td bgcolor=\"#FFFFFF\" width=\"214\"><\/td>\n<td width=\"121\">Sprint 1<\/td>\n<td width=\"69\">Sprint 2<\/td>\n<td width=\"68\">Sprint 3<\/td>\n<td width=\"69\">Sprint 4<\/td>\n<td width=\"69\">Sprint 5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">Backlog size at start of sprint<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">500<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">499<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">497<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">492<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">485<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">Sprint Backlog Committed<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">10<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">8<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">8<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">9<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">Sprint Backlog Completed<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">7<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">8<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">8<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">9<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\"><strong>Team Velocity<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">7.0<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">7.5<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">7.7<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">8.0<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">8.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">Items added to Backlog<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">5<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">4<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">1<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">Bugs added to Backlog<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">1<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">3<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">Items removed from Backlog<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">0<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">0<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">1<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\"><strong>Sprints Estimate to Completion<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">71.29<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">66.27<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">64.17<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">60.63<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">58.05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">Allocation % for new Bugs\/Rework<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">1.00<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">0.95<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">0.95<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">0.90<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">0.85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">Weighted Sprints to Completion<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">71.29<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">69.75<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">67.55<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">67.36<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">68.29<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\"><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\">days Exploded for 10 day sprints<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">713<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">698<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">676<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">674<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">683<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\"><strong>Projected Completion Date<\/strong><\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">3\/28\/2021<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">3\/13\/2021<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2\/19\/2021<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2\/17\/2021<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\">2\/26\/2021<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are three types of software projects, and we must estimate for each of these cases.<\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fixed Date;\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the launch date has been set in stone<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fixed Scope<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">; the Scope has been defined where the product is not market-ready until these features are ready.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fixed Date and Scope<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">; A high stake contract and widespread promises make this is the granddaddy of issues because of its difficulty and pressure. The urgency of the boss forces developers to agree to unrealistic schedules.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Estimating is the mark of a significant project manager\/lead because estimates are not treated as estimates. Still, instead, it spreads as gospel that the savior is coming on the said Date. Estimators have to be very precise, but you rarely control what you are to build (specs). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The accuracy of an estimate depends on two things. First, if the current project has been successfully done before, or two is close enough to something that has been successfully done. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are dependencies on other programs and programmers. It takes forever to build anything significant, and the product can be obsolete when it is finished.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Cone-of-uncertaintiy.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-5509\" src=\"http:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Cone-of-uncertaintiy-300x220.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Cone-of-uncertaintiy-300x220.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Cone-of-uncertaintiy-80x60.jpg 80w, https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Cone-of-uncertaintiy.jpg 448w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>The cone of uncertainty can lead to as much as four times as much time needed, aka underestimating or a quarter-time overestimating, so there is time remaining. Neither is ideal, but the latter is far better than the former. The main contributors to the variances are:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Scope Changes<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">; Incompleteness and inconsistencies become apparent only during implementation. When the software materializes into the business hands, there are many, &#8220;oh, I forgot to tell you that&#8230; and we cannot go live without it.&#8221; comments<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Unforeseen Issues<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">: Establishing a detailed technical requirement is the most challenging part of the conceptual work. If not perfect, then development might hit a dead end after days or weeks of progress. Each task has a nonzero probability of failure or slippage. The likelihood that all will go well is near zero. It is usually an impasse that must force a change in direction from the original plan that uses lots of time and energy from developers. No other part of work so cripples the product if done wrong, and no other part is more difficult to rectify later. Project time split should be 1\/3 planning (yes, this costs a lot), 1\/6 coding, 1\/4 component test, early system test, 1\/4 system test with all components.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Resource issues<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">; people get life issues, emergencies, or even vacations that can change the team&#8217;s velocity. Each time you add a team member, the\u00a0<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">team&#8217;s dynamics\u00a0<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">change, and its velocity changes. Each re-<\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">formation<\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0must undergo\u00a0<\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Storming<\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">,\u00a0<\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Norm-ing<\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0before it can go back to\u00a0<\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">performing<\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. This cycle is just human dynamics at work.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">If you happen to get the Fixed Scope\/ Fixed Date type of project, then the first course of action is to define the effort needed to do the work. If it surpasses the Fixed Date, then immediately go read the book. &#8220;the mythical man-month&#8221; by Frederick P Brooks, Jr. before you start the manic hiring process. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Frederick P. Brooks warns us that in software, man-hours and months are not interchangeable. You can&#8217;t add more men (beyond the midpoint) to make a project go faster. Projects in the later stages need hands but not new people who want to improve and change their current course. Men and months are interchangeable commodities only when a task can be partitioned among many workers with no communication among them. Cost varies with the workforce, but progress may not depending on the stage of the project!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The most important thing you can do is manage the Scope and the stories&#8217; dependencies in the product&#8217;s Scope. It is crucial to have iterative extraction and refinement of the product requirements, which sprints will manage. Try to reduce story dependencies and overall Scope as much as possible. Effectively this means you must be a master of the project backlog and its task relatedness.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>There are two types of communication: training-related and task-related. <strong>The real drain is task-related intercommunication, which increases level of effort by n(n-1)\/2 with each new team member<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>So team-of-3 requires three times the intercommunication of team-of-2. And team-of-4 requires six times the intercommunication of team-of-2.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;Frederick P. Brooks<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Stephen Choo Quan<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thanks for reading and Sharing \u2764<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"gv-post-content clearfix\">\n<p class=\"graf graf--h4\"><strong>Follow me\u00a0On:\u00a0<a class=\"markup--anchor markup--h4-anchor\" href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/taylorchooquan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/garyvee\">Instagram<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0<a class=\"markup--anchor markup--h4-anchor\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/stephen.chooquan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/gary\">Facebook<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/stephenchooquan\/\">Linked in<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every boss needs two kinds of information, exceptions to plan that require action and a status picture for education. &#8212; Frederick P. Brooks, Mythical Man Month Our managers and stakeholders will often ask the question, &#8220;when can I have this completed?&#8221; Keep track of these metrics that matter, the KPI&#8217;s that can influence the outcome. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2735,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,5,51,7],"tags":[44],"class_list":["post-5497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-leadership-innovation","category-productivity-quality","category-faq","tag-jira-scrum-agile"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/agile1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5497"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5497\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10425,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5497\/revisions\/10425"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}