{"id":6613,"date":"2020-04-29T00:13:17","date_gmt":"2020-04-29T06:13:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/?p=6613"},"modified":"2022-11-29T18:14:22","modified_gmt":"2022-11-30T00:14:22","slug":"estimating-software-how-to-estimate-time-costs-and-effort","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/estimating-software-how-to-estimate-time-costs-and-effort\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimating Software: How To Estimate Time, Costs And Effort"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-playlist wp-audio-playlist wp-playlist-light\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-current-item\"><\/div>\n\t\t<audio controls=\"controls\" preload=\"none\" width=\"674\"\n\t\t\t><\/audio>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-next\"><\/div>\n\t<div class=\"wp-playlist-prev\"><\/div>\n\t<noscript>\n\t<ol>\n\t\t<li><a href='https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Estimating-Software.mp3'>Estimating Software<\/a><\/li>\t<\/ol>\n\t<\/noscript>\n\t<script type=\"application\/json\" class=\"wp-playlist-script\">{\"type\":\"audio\",\"tracklist\":true,\"tracknumbers\":true,\"images\":true,\"artists\":true,\"tracks\":[{\"src\":\"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Estimating-Software.mp3\",\"type\":\"audio\/mpeg\",\"title\":\"Estimating Software\",\"caption\":\"\",\"description\":\"\\\"Estimating Software\\\".\",\"meta\":{\"artist\":\"Stephen Choo Quan\",\"album\":\"Design and Execute\",\"length_formatted\":\"3:05\"},\"image\":{\"src\":\"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/audio.svg\",\"width\":48,\"height\":64},\"thumb\":{\"src\":\"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-includes\/images\/media\/audio.svg\",\"width\":48,\"height\":64}}]}<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\t\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">One of the hallmarks of a great project manager is his ability to estimate accurately. Estimating is a function of profitability. Assessing accurately and staying the course can realize the projected profit. For this reason, the one doing the work must estimate the job. Ideally, estimates are required from all angles to do the development work. Most importantly, in software, the tester\u2019s opinions are included as part of the development team.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Far too often, estimates are \u201cvoluntold,\u201d usually by sales and management after a signed contract is set to do a mission impossible. Expert advice is dismissed. Instead, it will be averaged out with detailed descriptions and prioritized with estimated business value when there is little to no experienced input.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">WHY ESTIMATE IF YOU CAN MEASURE? \u2014STEPHEN CHOO QUAN<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">To combat the unknown, we can do a SPIKE, as it is known in the agile methodology. In the simplest form, a SPIKE is a Proof Of Concept (POC) or prototype to learn so you can estimate better for tasks with higher accuracy and testing for increased business value. The SPIKE is time-boxed but not given a story point to be included in velocity calculations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Estimates are bad because, the truth is, we are not good at them. We overestimate the event and underestimate the process. Our best estimators are humble to this fact in the face of mounting managerial pressure to reduce the timeline and cost. These estimators also know that optimism is rewarded.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A wider confidence interval (CI) is a sign of a novice or ignorance, so most pros try to keep it narrow but ignore how much luck plays a role. Therefore, even the most experienced are poor estimators but defend their variances after rationalizing unforeseen complexity, aka excuses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are three typical scenarios when you estimate<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">You have done this exact job before and been successful<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">You have successfully done a similar job.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">You have no experience with this new scenario.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The best way to estimate a project is to use statistics and not let optimism get the better of you. Do the following:<\/span><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Estimate<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the project. A reasonable calculation is (2N + (B+W\/2) )\/3, as shown in the table below.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Find the base rate<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0for projects of that type.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Initiate variance<\/span><\/strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> from the base rate base on correlated factors and shift your estimate accordingly.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Do not get cocky and think you will have a wide variance from the base rate for similar correlated factors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Using the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), we can estimate the time and the number of standard deviations that can happen, it is not uncommon to have two standard deviations.<\/p>\n<table width=\"529\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"176\">\u00a0<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">B<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">N<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">W<\/td>\n<td width=\"115\">(2N + (B+W\/2) )\/3<\/td>\n<td width=\"46\">W-B\/6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Work Breakdown Structure<\/td>\n<td>(B)est<\/td>\n<td>(N)ormal<\/td>\n<td>(W)orst<\/td>\n<td>Estimate<\/td>\n<td>Sigma<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Task1<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>8<\/td>\n<td>4.333333333<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Task2<\/td>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>12<\/td>\n<td>4.166666667<\/td>\n<td>1.833<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Task3<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>9<\/td>\n<td>6.333333333<\/td>\n<td>0.667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Task4<\/td>\n<td>6<\/td>\n<td>10<\/td>\n<td>20<\/td>\n<td>11<\/td>\n<td>2.333<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>TOTAL<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>\u00a0<\/td>\n<td>25.83333333<\/td>\n<td>5.833<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">We should be re-estimating based on known average sustained velocity, but it seems like wasted energy since clients use our first estimates as gospel and law.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Sadly, we are the least knowledgeable at the beginning of a project, and that is precisely the moment when we are asked to provide estimates. The cone of uncertainty shows that our estimates become more accurate as they move down the project timeline. We also know that as the margin of input data increases, estimates will also increase in its variances, sending our initial forecast for a toss.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In closing, the way to recourse the original estimate is <\/span><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">to estimate both content work and relationship AND win on both fronts if you are to get estimates recalculated and communicated as you go.\u00a0 It is best to give a range of possible dates and not give one date, which is a commitment asked to keep.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Stephen Choo Quan<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Sharing is Caring. Thanks for reading and Sharing \u2764<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Follow me\u00a0On:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/taylorchooquan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/stephen.chooquan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Facebook<\/a>\u00a0|\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/stephenchooquan\/\">Linked in<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the hallmarks of a great project manager is his ability to estimate accurately. Estimating is a function of profitability. Assessing accurately and staying the course can realize the projected profit. For this reason, the one doing the work must estimate the job. Ideally, estimates are required from all angles to do the development [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-leadership-innovation","category-productivity-quality"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/cone-of-uncertainty.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6613"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6613\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16898,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6613\/revisions\/16898"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.designandexecute.com\/designs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}